Italy host France in the UEFA Nations League. Recent meetings have produced an average of 3.2 goals. Across the season the two attacks average 3.75 goals per game between them, while the two defences concede 1.75. That goal profile is what supports the Over 2.5 selection. The model rates this selection at 68.03%.

• Italy have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches (3W-1D-1L), while France have taken 10 (3W-1D-1L).
• Italy have scored 8 goals in 4 league games this season, conceding 5.
• France have scored 7 goals in 4 league games, conceding 2.
• Italy currently sit 2nd on 7 points, while France are 1st on 10.
• Across the last 5 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 3.2 goals per game.
• Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 meetings.