Wales host Portugal in the UEFA Nations League. Wales have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches, compared with 12 for Portugal. Portugal have scored 9 and conceded 4 in the league. Portugal have won 2 of the last 2 head-to-head meetings. The away side's form and match profile therefore support the 2 selection. The model rates this selection at 78.13%.

• Wales have taken 3 points from their last 5 matches (1W-0D-4L), while Portugal have taken 12 (4W-0D-1L).
• Wales have scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season, conceding 5.
• Portugal have scored 9 goals in 4 league games, conceding 4.
• Across the last 2 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 1.5 goals per game.