The match finished 3–1, producing 4 total goals. The Over 2.5 prediction landed successfully.

Sweden host Poland in the UEFA Nations League. Recent meetings have produced an average of 4 goals. Across the season the two attacks average 3.5 goals per game between them, while the two defences concede 1.75. That goal profile is what supports the Over 2.5 selection. The model rates this selection at 15.38%.

• Sweden have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches (1W-2D-2L), while Poland have taken 1 (0W-1D-1L).
• Sweden have scored 7 goals in 4 league games this season, conceding 3.
• Poland have scored 7 goals in 4 league games, conceding 4.
• Across the last 4 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 4 goals per game.
• Both teams scored in 3 of those 4 meetings.
• Sweden have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches.