The match finished 4–1, producing 5 total goals. The Over 2.5 prediction landed successfully.

Spain host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League. Recent meetings have produced an average of 4.2 goals. Across the season the two attacks average 5 goals per game between them, while the two defences concede 4. That goal profile is what supports the Over 2.5 selection. The model rates this selection at 18.18%.

• Spain have taken 15 points from their last 5 matches (5W-0D-0L), while Croatia have taken 9 (3W-0D-2L).
• Spain have scored 7 goals in 2 league games this season, conceding 3.
• Croatia have scored 3 goals in 2 league games, conceding 5.
• Across the last 5 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 4.2 goals per game.
• Both teams scored in 3 of those 5 meetings.
• 5 recent meetings have produced 4.2 goals per game, supporting Over 2.5.