France host Italy in the UEFA Nations League. Recent meetings have produced an average of 3.5 goals. Across the season the two attacks average 3 goals per game between them, while the two defences concede 1.5. That goal profile is what supports the Over 1.5 selection. The model rates this selection at 88.50%.

• France have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches (3W-0D-2L), while Italy have taken 9 (3W-0D-1L).
• France have scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season, conceding 0.
• Italy have scored 4 goals in 2 league games, conceding 3.
• France currently sit 1st on 6 points, while Italy are 3rd on 3.
• Across the last 4 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 3.5 goals per game.
• Both teams scored in 3 of those 4 meetings.