The match finished 2–3, producing 5 total goals. The Over 2.5 prediction landed successfully.

England host Spain in the UEFA Nations League. Recent meetings have produced an average of 4 goals. Across the season the two attacks average 6.5 goals per game between them, while the two defences concede 2. That goal profile is what supports the Over 2.5 selection. The model rates this selection at 15.38%.

• England have taken 12 points from their last 5 matches (4W-0D-1L), while Spain have taken 15 (5W-0D-0L).
• England have scored 14 goals in 4 league games this season, conceding 3.
• Spain have scored 12 goals in 4 league games, conceding 5.
• Across the last 4 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 4 goals per game.
• Both teams scored in 4 of those 4 meetings.
• 4 recent meetings have produced 4 goals per game, supporting Over 2.5.