Croatia host England in the UEFA Nations League. Recent meetings have produced an average of 2.6 goals. Across the season the two attacks average 3.5 goals per game between them, while the two defences concede 4. That goal profile is what supports the Over 1.5 selection. The model rates this selection at 82.64%.

• Croatia have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches (3W-0D-2L), while England have taken 9 (3W-0D-2L).
• Croatia have scored 3 goals in 2 league games this season, conceding 5.
• England have scored 4 goals in 2 league games, conceding 3.
• Across the last 5 head-to-head meetings, these sides have averaged 2.6 goals per game.
• Both teams scored in 3 of those 5 meetings.
• 5 recent meetings have produced 2.6 goals per game, supporting Over 1.5.